I will be surprised if we can get rid of fossil fuel even by 2100! I do however think the fossil fuel, renewables and nuclear energy will co-exist. Let’s hope the fossil fuel will be in the minority!
Climate change and Energy Security
LMSC Let’s hope the fossil fuel will be in the minority!
The more nuclear we have, the less fossil fuel needed. More renewables, means more fossil fuel.. unless we find a form of efficient and high density energy storage..
LMSC I am afraid Lithium batteries have not followed Moore’s law. Energy density increases at about 5% per year. We need a 7000% increase in energy density…
Chemical batteries have a remarkably low energy density compared to fossil fuels, about 100 to 150x less. Even though only 20 or 30% of the energy in fossil fuels can be converted to electricity, it’s still way ahead.
DavecUK Moore’s Law is applicable in a very specific field. Even that had to be adapted because the future never plays out as predicted. Moore needed to upscale his prediction and then imagined things would tale off as we reached nano scale. We are yet to see how that plays out.
The fact that battery technology progress does not mirror that of ICs is not relevant. Battery technology is constantly improving and the cost of their manufacture is falling. You are right that they are not yet a perfect solution but I don’t agree that it is impossible that they will ever be viable. Progress has a way of constantly surprising us - even though we shouldn’t be surprised as the evidence is there. Gradual improvements that we don’t notice until suddenly things seem better. This doesn’t happen though if progress is not pursued.
I quickly found this article which is worth 5 minutes. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/eternally-five-years-away-no-batteries-are-improving-under-your-nose/?comments=1
As I said before, we all know what we thought of computers. Technology in the battery space is improving and will. It will take time and am confident it will continue to mature sufficiently to underpin the renewables, which won’t serve all our energy needs.
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LMSC Technology in the battery space is improving and will. It will take time and am confident it will continue to mature sufficiently to underpin the renewables, which won’t serve all our energy needs.
The electrochemical cell by its very nature and the laws of physics is limited to a relatively puny energy density. The only saving grace is that it directly outputs electricity without requiring to run a generator to do it…Generating energy from fossil fuels is only about 30% efficient in power stations. A battery is over 90% efficient. The problem is the batteries energy density is 100 to 200 times lower per unit volume, depending on the fuel we’re talking about.
The problem long term is this (in simplistic terms) for renewables, which have to go hand in hand with fossil fuel generation. I’m being very generous about the number of windmills as it might be 1500 or 2000.
reference sources for batteries (old but valid) https://thebulletin.org/2009/01/the-limits-of-energy-storage-technology/
P.S. Wind turbines actually use energy, much more than you think, not just when generating power, but when not generating it and at field energisation and spin up.
Photovoltaic cells have a lifespan of around 20 years…so what happens to all that incredibly hard to recycle e-waste. Which has some nasty stuff in it.
Anybody know anything about Sulphur Lithium cells? Reputed to be a lot better than the existing lithium technologies.
Free energy is coming soon via Tesla technology. Starlink. Standby. ✋
Well, I’ve just read through the whole thread and my brain is addled.
I thought I was doing my bit for the planet in a myriad of ways, but it seems I needn’t have bothered.
There are a whole host of reasons why we seem to be in the position we are in; political (geo and domestic) greed, convenience, selfishness etc etc etc.
The first powered flight was in 1903, only 36 years later was the first real jet engined aircraft and only 30 years later men were walking on the moon. Surely it is not beyond the whit of man to develope better ways to produce power than using coal, gas or oil or at least a lot less.
I agree nuclear is the obvious answer, but the difference in consequences between an oil refinery or gas pipeline blowing up (or in Putin’s case being blown up) and a nuclear power plant going bang is massive. Actually, that is my worry, the likes of someone else coming along like Putin or Kim Jong-Un or any other despot who could target such installations. Power outage is one thing, nuclear fallout is a monster we cannot afford to let loose.
Sad to say, there will be no answer in my lifetime. We will continute to pollute the atmosphere, choke the seas with plastics, destroy th soil with pestacides, not because we cannot find ways to stop it, but because there is no real worldwide political will. For any government to make the real hard choices would mean massive price increases on virtually everything and that would mean political suicide. Also, countries like India will say when we berate them for burning fossil fuels ’Oh, now you’ve had your toast you want to p**s on the fire’… well tough!
I look around and we can’t even be bothered with the obvious always using ‘cost’ as an excuse. for example, driving around I often see new houses going up… houses with no solar panels on the roofs. OK, they may not completely negate the need for power from the grid, but they would help. Remember when every house had a water tank in the loft? When I got a combi I took mine out as there was no need for it. What about puutting those back in and making them for rain water collection and used to flush your toilet? We had that where I worked in a government building in York and it worked a treat. What about triple glazing on all new houses?…why not learn from other countries? I have a mate who lives in Sweden and I’ve been over there when the temperature was minus 20 degrees outside and yet I was able to walk around his house in me shorts and T shirt it was so cosey and there were no roaring fires. The houses were designed and built for the conditions.
The we need to look at ourselves. Whilst many of us say we will be happy to pay an extra few pence here and there if it means wrapping something in a biodegradeable material instead of plastic, in reality we moan at any price increase for whatever reason. It’s a catch 22 situation prices increase we need higher wages to pay for them… higher wages means price increases. The answer really is the fat cats being willing to take less profit. Now there’s a thought, the likes of Tesco or BP or any company with shareholders taking less and giving you the consumer the product cheaper… I think that’s called UTOPIA!
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Sadly we live in a world of vampire economics where everything is geared to screw as much money out of us as possible. The failure of successive governments to deal with pollution / fossil fuels falls on us to resolve through higher energy bills - not the large oil companies who are given massive tax relief and make obscene profits year on year. Politicians have their snouts in the trough and screw everyone else.
Look at the plans being tabled for taxing drivers for using the roads as a by the mile charge - let’s make sure we still have a way to ensure the plebs continue to pay their taxes and duties when they stop using petrol and we can no longer screw them for the duty that we’ll be losing.
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Pompeyexile The problem is the whole climate change agenda is also pushed forward by economics and companies who want to make a profit from going green.
I am a massive eco warrior, but the climate change agenda makes me sick, simply because it’s fed by the same economics and deception as to the solutions, while Quentin and Crispin eat their smashed avocado on vegan toast and nod sagely as they get into their electric car.
I try to really find out what’s going on using common sense and my understanding of science around energy production, something I’ve researched for my own interest for over 30 years. Some of the things I do (and it’s also how you do them) really do help save the planet.
- Fix something - The best thing for the planet you can do is fix something.
- Own something for a long time - the next best thing you can do for the planet. Stop buying loads of “stuff”
- Change something - only if the energy saving for doing so costs in against the environmental waste of changing it before end of life
- Recycle everything you can
- Buy natural fibres, as much as possible (but use them for as long as you can). The T shirt I’m in is at least 7 years old it has a small hole or two somewhere, but who cares. This means washing at low temp, turning inside out, line drying…but hey less microplastics and environmentally friendly end of life.
- Use a washing line or rotary drier whenever possible - I know we all do don’t we? Low temperatures, biological powder, longer cycles, and if you must tumble dry sometimes, a heat pump tumble drier
- Wash the largest dishwasher load you can (much better for the environment than hand washing)
- Wash the largest washing machine load always. Don’t split whites and colours unless you always have a FULL load of each.
- If you have a pee, consider leaving it until the next pee before you flush when possible (halves water usage). And use the partial flush option.
- Drive more economically and a little slower on the motorway
- Turn your condensing boiler down as low as you can for best performance, otherwise they rarely hit their performance figures, this means you could be using 20 or 30% more gas than you need to. The house just warms up a little slower. Boiler cycles less often as well which is a good thing. My boiler is set for a 55C flow temp, any lower and legionella becomes a concern in the HW cylinder. Heat less wear warmer clothing, make sure the house is well insulated and draught sealed
- Shower faster and with less water, turn it on to wet down, turn off when you soap yourself, turn on to rinse down. Take pride in how little water you can use
- Don’t water the garden…ever. If you have pot plants, use a watering can for just those or a controlled sprayer on the hose. Don’t use garden chemicals or fertilisers, grow what likes to grow in your garden. Get a compost bin or two, if you can.
- Wash the car with a pressure washer and not too often. If you can put the car in the garage, cuts down on washing
- Only buy fruit and veg with no air miles on it and that is in season locally. (not forced or grown in greenhouses). I don’t buy avocados because of this and other water waste reasons. Buy products with minimal packaging. A full recycling bin is just a visual representation of failure, a full residual waste bin is just a visual representation of don’t give a shit.
- Make sure your food waste bin is always empty (or as empty as possible)…I have not put one out for 3 months now. Never waste food, compost anything else. Make stock out of bones
- Wear your footwear longer and take care of it more
- Buy the smallest car you really need, try and make sure it’s economical. driving a Large diesel SUV when you don’t need to says “I don’t give a shit”, this applies even if you buy a save the planet T shirt.
- Use tupperware, or free tupperware from some of those ready meals. -not cling film or plastic bags
- Don’t use kitchen towels - by a couple of sponges
- Remember those old T shirts - make great rags, washable too, no need for J-Cloths or similar.
There’s plenty more I do, but it needs a change of lifestyle and constant awareness of the impact on the planet, being ready to change more as needs demand. These are the things I can do that make a small difference, and even save me money. What if we all did it?
The things being foisted on us such as windmills PV etc.. are generally to make rich people and companies lots of money. These things also guarantee a continual need for fossil fuels. Effectively burning, going up in smoke what is needed for almost all synthetics….once it’s gone it’s gone….what a waste.
I know Nuclear isn’t popular, but it really is the only solution until we have fusion in perhaps 80-100 years, possibly never. The responsible thing to do is assume it’s never, until it isn’t.
DavecUK I must be a closet eco warrior. Agree so much with what you say. We have been trying to do a lot of the things in your list. When you speak with people about these things some just make you feel like your the odd one out and dismiss you or that there is nothing that they can do. Us humans are using the earths resources at an alarming rate and must change direction. If we all did our bit it would help. I am no protester or one with extreme views but do feel that we must all try. I know what you mean about the T shirt a hole here and there never hurt anyone.
My other half and I do everything on your list Dave as best we can. I can’t remember when I last bought some new clothes. As for T shirts or shirts they get worn until they are almost threadbare. Waste is a dirty word in our house, especially when it comes to food…nothing gets wasted! And I never thought I’d hear myself saying to my significant half…'I’m havine a wee… do you want one?' so as to save on flushes, but that is the norm now.
I’ll carry on doing my bit though regardless, but unfortunately when I look around me, the ’I’ll do what I want now and sod the future as I won’t be here’ brigade, is all too prevalent from Jo Soap let alone big industry or governments.
At 63 and by the time I breath my last, I think I may well have lived in a golden age, because the future certainly looks more pewter in colour.
How do we allow or stand for shit like this?
dutchy101 It’s worse than that they have an option to acquire the remaining 40%, so could own 100% of it. They are simply money men and a purely there to make profit for pension funds etc.. They can see green gold in them hills.
Martin Bradley, Head of Macquarie Asset Management’s Real Assets team in EMEA, said “The national transmission system is a critical enabler of the UK’s energy transition, providing the flexibility and reserve energy needed in the electricity system as the deployment of renewable sources of generation accelerates. However, if the UK’s net-zero by 2050 target is to be met, the country must have a next-generation transmission backbone to power homes and businesses with renewable energy. Backed by our significant investment, the transmission system will play a leading role in making the network ready for this transition. In doing so it will support the expansion of hydrogen’s role in the energy mix to deliver a competitive edge to the UK and its industry, while working closely with the Government and Ofgem to maintain security of supply.”
Profiting greatly from our flawed green policy, you can bet they will do everything they can to prevent Nuclear Power and push other super profitable strategies for them.
If you want to be slightly sickened, read it and just for interest…Hydrogen is a terrible way to store energy, making it is inefficient, and it’s really hard to store efficiently….especially in a small area.
Can I ask a question?When did Global Warming become Climate Change and why?
dfk41 It didn’t. Global warming is one of the symptoms of climate change. More detail available with a quick google search - here for example - https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming-vs-climate-change/