Warning - Long Rant

I’ve been thinking about what I’m actually paying for coffee now, and looking back at my own buying patterns, there is a clear shift.

During Covid, I was often paying around £6 per 100g for light or medium-light filter coffee. Then £7-£8 per 100g started to feel more normal, especially for 250g bags. Now, for the coffees I tend to buy, I’m seeing more like £9-£10 per 100g.

At that price, I can’t help but think about the value factor. A coffee that is just good or nice is becoming harder to justify for us. It needs to at least leave me thinking, “we really enjoyed drinking that”, even if it is not a full wow experience. Otherwise, it starts to feel like an expensive average experience.

Buying a kilo makes more sense on paper, but the risk is also higher. If the coffee turns out average, you are stuck with a lot of it.

I look at international coffee prices as part of my job, so I’ve been watching the wider market too. It explains some of what is happening, but not all of it. The ICE Coffee C contract, which is the global benchmark for Arabica, had a big rally through the 2024/25 coffee year. It moved from around $143+ cents/lb in Oct 2023 to $440+ cents/lb in Feb 2025, which is roughly a 206% increase, before losing around 45% by June this year.

Some of the notable reasons were supply-chain pressure, market volatility, and concerns around Brazilian drought, which eased as the region had good rainfall.

Looking at asset market prices generally, I do think coffee prices could gradually firm up again towards the levels seen in 2025. That is just my view, not a certainty.

What is interesting is that the drop in green coffee prices has not really shown up clearly at retail level yet.

The Specialty Coffee Retail Price Index is useful here. The average retail price for roasted specialty coffee rose 3.9% to $32.75/lb, which shows the disconnect quite well: green prices can fall, but bag prices do not necessarily follow quickly.

There are fair reasons for that lag. Roasters may be working through long-dated green contracts, or coffee bought when prices were higher. They also still have rent, energy, wages, packaging, finance costs, shipping, import costs and VAT to deal with. There is probably also a replacement-cost issue: commodity prices are volatile, so a roaster may price based on what the next coffee might cost, not just what the current coffee cost.

It would be genuinely interesting to hear from roasters like @BlackCatCoffee and @LeefromFoundryCR on how they approach green buying, contracts and pricing.

But from the home barista side, that only goes so far. If a 200g bag is effectively £18-£20, and the cup is only good rather than memorable, the real value is not there.

My take is pretty simple: I understand why prices went up. Arabica had a serious rally, and the supply chain was under pressure. But if green prices have dropped from the highs and retail prices stay elevated, then the coffee quality has to justify the price, IMO.

For light and medium-light filter, “nice” does not add enough value at £9-£10 per 100g. I want clarity, expression of notes, or at least that feeling of wanting to reach for another cup. It does not always have to be wow, but it needs to be more than just fine.

Of course, no one is forcing us to buy. That’s not the point. Or is it?

What do you guys think? What’s your take on coffee prices vs quality vs value for money? 😊

https://ico.org/resources/coffee-market-report-statistics-section/

Some interesting read, should it interest anyone!

https://www.ice.com/products/15/Coffee-C-Futures/data

https://www.transactionguide.coffee/reports

https://www.comunicaffe.com/coffee-futures-prices-at-historic-highs-during-the-2024-25-coffee-year/

https://www.ice.com/products/15/Coffee-C-Futures/data

https://ico.org/resources/public-market-information/

https://ico.org/resources/coffee-market-report-statistics-section/

KC US Coffee C ICE futures, Investing.com for charts