Osmio on EBay

@Gagaryn - I repeat my original point.

If your bid is the highest (accepted/acceptable)….. you win
If nobody else bids…. you win (at the lowest acceptable bid)

It doesn’t matter if you bid manually once, manually multiple times or if you snipe….
If your bid is the highest acceptable bid - you win!

If your maximum bid is 1p more than anyone bidding after you - You win!

So if you bid £50.01 (on an item with no other bidders)
and acceptable increments are £5…
Your initial accepted bid is £5
Anyone else bidding later will up the accepted bid by £10
(£5 for their bid then £5 from your bid)

If some one bids £50 your £50.01 is still the highest acceptable bid - and you win
They would need to bid £55(.01) in order to “win”.

So you actually have an advantage by bidding manually in advance - because you can “beat” all the snipers by adding odd pence into your highest bid.

I know some snipers add an artificially high bid to “get round” this….. but they can get burnt if two (or more) snipers do the same… and they end up “winning” but at a silly price (over their actual “maximum”)

It basically comes back to - if you bid the maximum you are willing to pay - you win if no body else bids more…. irrespective of how they bid!

Drewster

The one major advantage I remember when sniping…Placing an ebay proxy bid o and item committed you to bidding on it, I don’t even think you were allowed to lower it. If then a second identical item came up, you couldn’t proxy bid on both in-case you won both items, when you only wanted one.

With a bid sniper, I was never committed to bidding for something, and if I wanted I could place max bids on both items, using the local software, if I won’t the first, the software then wouldn’t bid on the other item.

I could even put a lower max bid on one item, knowing if I didn’t steal it…then a more realistic bid would still be placed on the second item.

Yep - There are definitely “weaknesses” in EBays auction model the one you outline and the one that led to sniping in the first place - an end time!

Most auction models basically extend the close point if/when a (higher) bid is received…
Going once… Going twice… and a new bidder….
Any more?? (logically any underbidders that want to increase)

In every one of your examples placing your maximum bid (£52.01) “sometime” before the end with a standard bid puts you in a winning situation and sniping would “lose” ie you would have to bid more to win by sniping (assuming the sniper wanted to pay circa £50)

If there were no rivals…… you still win.

Obviously you won’t be convinced and you will continue to snipe. And each time you win an auction by sniping you will take it as confirmation :-)

But you have clearly stated that to win the thing you value at £50 you “need” to bid a premium of £2.01.

Trust me, as an ebay seller I love snipers… they all “play clever” and up their max “a bit” in the belief they are playing the system……
but all that achieves is on average a small increase in my selling price :-)
Happy days - keep on sniping!!!

You’re missing the simple point that bidding early increases the opportunity for others to counter bid - driving up the final cost. Bidding late alleviates this. I have often won auctions for a fraction of my maximum bid because my “opponent” was unaware that he had competition.

Like you, I know you won’t be convinced and will write off my experience as confirmation bias - but I’ve tried it both ways - you should give my way try and see if you still feel the same way. Over 22 years on eBay, literally thousands of purchases. Hundreds of sales. I know what works.

Anybody has the opportunity to bid at any point during the auction, they have exactly the same opportunity to bid throughout the auction no matter what you do (even if you have zero interest or don’t even know it exists).

Literally nothing you do or don’t do affects others opportunity to bid.

If you bid the maximum you are willing to pay immediately - you win if no body out bids you.

You lose if someone outbids you.

You have admitted that when you snipe you up your bid ergo sniping inflates the price.

You have won auctions at low bids - because no body else outbid you.

If you bid your maximum - the highest “you” can drive the price is one bid increment higher (to outbid you)

If you snipe with a “play the system” increment (to beat the bidder who values the item the same as you)
you can drive up the price by your “pts” increment plus a standard bid increment.

When several snipers “play the game” there is the chance of a couple of them being “really clever” and sniping with a “silly” amount - so the £50 item goes for a few hundred/thousands* (plus a few pence ;-) )

I am happy if you want to keep sniping despite the facts that you provide.

* Not all snipers honour these silly bids - but technically they are a legal contract that can (technically) be enforced by law…… not practically but hey ho!

I once sold some thing I valued at about £20 for £157 - the £157 bid was definitely sniping.
BUT the guy paid - so maybe it was just my valuation that was wrong!

I did once sell a porcelain ornament for £500 when I expected about £30….. that was definitely my “not knowing” and a viable selling price :-)
Fortunately we had bought a few similar ornaments as a job lot in a (real) auction - 4 in all hidden by an awful chalk/china kitchen pot… Happy Days!!!

Drewster -“because no body else outbid you”. This is the bit you are struggling to understand the importance of.

I’ve been buying off Ebay for years and have never heard of this Sniping. I wait until the dying minutes of an auction, look at where it is at and if I still want it and I think it is worth paying more for what the current bid is, I wait and push the button in the final ten seconds. If I win great, if I don’t then, ce la vie.

I know that means I’ve got to be around when it comes to an end but 9 times out of ten I am and I’ll be honest, there is a little bit of excitement in doing it that way…yes I know, I live a very boring life. One thing I always do though is whatever my maximum, I always make it pounds and pennies with the thought if my max in pounds is the same as someone elses, the pennies might win it.

The one thing you can almost gurantee about Ebay, is that if you do miss out on a certain item, another will be along at some time. On the few auctions I have lost, another of the same item has come up later and I’ve even won those at a cheaper price than the original one I bid and lost on, so as Del would say…'Everyone’s a winner!'

Got to admit though, I am sometimes gobsmacked how some people get into a bidding frenzy and pay well over the odds for something pre-owned that they could have bought for new, cheaper elsewhere.

I always search the net first and Ebay is certainly not always the cheapest option.

It’s a difficult one, it’s easy to say £50 is my limit and that’s the most I’ll bid, but when the item goes for £51 then it’s frustrating as you’d (probably) have happily paid a tiny bit more. But in that situation you don’t know what the winning bidder was willing to bid up to, they might have had a max bid of £70.

By leaving it until the last minute there’s probably a higher chance of paying less than your max price

Gagaryn because no body else outbid you”. This is the bit you are struggling to understand the importance of.

Really - I’m not…………

1 - If you bid manually and nobody (sniping or otherwise) outbids you by more than a bid increment - you win!
PLUS - You get it at the cheapest possible price - as little as 1p above your rival (he always has to did/pay a full bid increment more to outbid you)

2 - If you snipe you have to outbid your rival by MORE than a full bid increment
and as you have already said - you inflate your max bid in an attempt to achieve it. You are only countering his odd pence strategy….. the difference being his odd pence strategy is a winning strategy (he gets the win for the lowest possible price whereas you get to pay a full bid increment more)

You (by sniping) MIGHT “win” more auctions.
But in contested auctions - you pay a premium
In uncontested auctions……. the method doesn’t matter.

The thing you (IMHO) are failing to understand is that “winning” the auction (at "any’ cost) isn’t actually a measure of success - “winning” the auction at the lowest possible price is more relevant.

If you bid “silly money” (sniping or otherwise) on every auction you had an interest you would “win” every auction……
but it would cost you a lot.

So if you are happy “winning” by paying a premium…. knock yourself out.

Pompeyexile I wait until the dying minutes of an auction, look at where it is at and if I still want it and I think it is worth paying more for what the current bid is, I wait and push the button in the final ten seconds. If I win great, if I don’t then, ce la vie.

You are sniping manually - but the key difference is that you are getting that “little bit of excitement” out of it :-)

If you over bid by a few pence/quid or lose out - you aren’t bothered… AND you had a bit of fun….

Dusk t’s a difficult one, it’s easy to say £50 is my limit and that’s the most I’ll bid, but when the item goes for £51 then it’s frustrating as you’d (probably) have happily paid a tiny bit more. But in that situation you don’t know what the winning bidder was willing to bid up to, they might have had a max bid of £70.

By leaving it until the last minute there’s probably a higher chance of paying less than your max price

I know the feeling of “missing out” (by a couple of quid) - but that is only a factor in determining your max bid.

If you think - That’d be a steal at £40-45 but I’d pay £50……. No actually I’d hate to lose out by the quid…
So I’ll actually bid £56……. then your “in”…..

By bidding late - you might beat the early £51 tactical bid… but it costs you the £5 bid increment on top.

It is only your last sentence I disagree with…… by sniping/late bidding there is statistically/mathematically a higher chance of paying more (in a contested auction) - and b*gger all difference in an uncontested one ;-)

Drewster I think you are misunderstanding how sniping works - you say “ If you snipe you have to outbid your rival by MORE than a full bid increment”. This is perhaps the root of the confusion. Sniping only increases the price by one bid increment at a time. If the auction is sitting at £15 but the current winning bidder has actually bid £20 my £50 snipe will mean I win at £20.50.

My argument is if I had bid £20.50 early in the auction, or even my full limit of £50 and some pennies - the opportunity is there for the other party to bid again, increasing the final sale price. I think this is pretty obvious. Your logic seems to rely on assuming every bidder only bids once at their max price, not the incremental bidding war which is the norm. Sniping negates the war.

Yes - EBay “proxy bidding” only ups the bidding by “one bidding increment” at a time.

This is true with “advance” bidding & sniping…

If a bid is entered at say £50 but the first acceptable bid is £5 the current bid shows as £5

Which is what you are bidding against. (lets assume the bidding increment is £1)

Any (higher) bid will increase the current bid (in £1 increments)
So if “player 2” bids £8 the bidding will go:

Initial bid player 1: £5 (£50)
Player 2: £6 (£8)
P1 (auto/proxy): £7
P2 (A/P): £8
P1 (A/P) £9 (£50). - The intermediate bids do logically exist)

In order for P2 to “win” they need to bid £51+
and it doesn’t really matter if they manually do it in any number of increments/amounts
Only £51+ will allow them to win

P1 can win at any increment - above where the later bidder stops.
Including a “few pence” above the later bid
(The full amount of the initial bid was accepted as an acceptable bid when posted)
Any later bid has to beat the earlier bid by more than an increment.

My argument is:
If you bid your MAXIMUM bid early you will “win” - In that you will pay the minimum price possible for the item (below your maximum)
If someone else bids more (than you max) they will win

- BUT their MINIMUM winning price WILL BE HIGHER than your MINIMUM winning price!

Proxy bidding just means that the price only increases to a single bid increment above a rival (very similar to a “real” auction Commission bid)

As previously stated any user has every opportunity to bid at any point - irrespective of other peoples actions.
(I accept that an early bid does indicate/tell other people that “someone” is interested - but they have no idea if the initial bid is actually higher).

I am in full agreement about the futility of incremental bidding……..

Drewster I think we are getting worryingly close to agreeing. So to make sure that doesn’t happen, I’m going to point out that most eBay users do incrementally bid. :)

You favour bidding high early on, in the hope that potential rivals get scared off because every time they submit an incrementally higher bid your earlier bid counters and trumps them. You will only lose if others trump your bid, either incrementally during the course of the auction or by bidding higher in one go at any point.

I favour keeping my cards close to my chest hoping that I can sneak in at the end with a bid higher than others without giving them the ability to respond. If my highest bid is higher than theirs - I win. If it is less - I lose.

In a nutshell, my strategy is favourable if others bid incrementally and believe that nobody is bidding against them - this works for me as I am often looking for stuff with little interest.

For stuff where their is more interest, many bidders and a consensus on value, bidding early will be just as successful, even more so if you have no desire to go a few pennies over the notionally agreed value just to win the auction.

Still doesn’t solve the problem of seeing 3 of the same item and similar price and being able to set up a snipe on all 3….but as soon as you win one…the software (or mine did this) ceased to bid on the remaining items.

You simply can’t do that on proxy bidding, or add a bid in if another similar/same item comes up a few days after you placed your proxy bid.

DavecUK I agree this is a weakness (or a drawback) of the EBay system.

Any proffered bid is an undertaking to complete the deal (if you win) and you can be stuck with multiple “winning” bids on similar items. EBays rules on withdrawing bids is pretty strict.

Unlike real world Commission bids where you can advise the auctioneer that you are only interested in buying one of the multiple similar lots (this has the disadvantage that there is a bias to you winning the “first” of the lots…. which might end up being the most expensive and or least good).
I am excluding multiple similar/identical lots (in consecutive lots) from the same seller where real life auctions (very often) offer the high bidder on the 1st lot “the option” - where they can choose to buy any/all of the grouped lots at the bid price and then (if the high bidder doesn’t take them all) under bidders are offered the choice to buy at the high bid price (until all are sold - or all under bidders are satisfied).

Drewster I agree this is a weakness (or a drawback) of the EBay system.

Which for me, that reason alone was enough to stop me proxy bidding.